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AVM model details: Hawaii, United States

Performance metrics for AVMs in this location.

Model type

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List price estimation model

Estimates list prices in this location from historical data and market trends.

Key performance metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)12.5%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.860How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$845,756Average prediction error in the local currency
Mean Absolute Error$279,383Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%22.9%
Within 10%42.5%
Within 15%55.5%
Within 20%65.4%

Prediction bias analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$42,013Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$1,570Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate50.8%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate49.2%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error distribution percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$12,575$38,904$97,655$237,777$536,640$986,381

Model configuration & training

Training Samples13728
Testing Samples3390
Training R²0.980
Testing R²0.860
Last Updated2026-11-11

Additional performance metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error23.1%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$844,711Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation71.5%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %2.0%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %51.0%90% of predictions have error less than this