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AVM Model Details: Winnipeg, MB

Detailed performance metrics for our automated valuation models in this location.

Sale price estimation model

This model estimates the sale price of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)7.1%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.840How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$131198Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$50950Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%38.4%
Within 10%62.3%
Within 15%75.9%
Within 20%84.8%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$13601Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias-$1697Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate48.0%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate52.0%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$4013$10275$24719$50948$96795$153204

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples16856
Testing Samples4215
Training R²0.900
Testing R²0.840
Last Updated2025-07-03

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error11.7%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$130491Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation33.5%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.2%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %25.9%90% of predictions have error less than this

List price estimation model

This model estimates the list price of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)7.1%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.840How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$134405Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$51923Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%37.1%
Within 10%62.6%
Within 15%76.4%
Within 20%84.8%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$14180Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias-$1206Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate48.6%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate51.4%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$4213$10855$24990$52246$95461$154380

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples16856
Testing Samples4215
Training R²0.910
Testing R²0.840
Last Updated2025-07-03

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error11.7%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$133655Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation33.5%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.2%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %25.5%90% of predictions have error less than this

Monthly rent estimation model

This model estimates the monthly rent of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)8.4%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.460How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$488Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$360Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%24.8%
Within 10%56.9%
Within 15%66.7%
Within 20%81.0%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$48Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias-$18Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate47.1%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate52.9%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$51$135$252$511$887$1021

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples609
Testing Samples153
Training R²0.900
Testing R²0.460
Last Updated2025-07-03

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error12.7%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$486Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation17.3%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %2.1%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %27.5%90% of predictions have error less than this