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AVM model details: Virginia, United States

Performance metrics for AVMs in this location.

Model type

Select the type of valuation model you want to view.

List price estimation model

Estimates list prices in this location from historical data and market trends.

Key performance metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)8.3%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.860How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$305,472Average prediction error in the local currency
Mean Absolute Error$81,828Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%33.4%
Within 10%56.8%
Within 15%71.4%
Within 20%80.3%

Prediction bias analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$18,587Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias-$2,022Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate48.2%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate51.8%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error distribution percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$5,903$15,409$35,945$75,687$153,773$245,468

Model configuration & training

Training Samples206325
Testing Samples22443
Training R²0.930
Testing R²0.860
Last Updated2026-10-12

Additional performance metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error15.6%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$304,907Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation55.7%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.4%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %31.9%90% of predictions have error less than this