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AVM model details: Harris County, Texas, United States

Performance metrics for AVMs in this location.

Model type

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List price estimation model

Estimates list prices in this location from historical data and market trends.

Key performance metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)5.9%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.830How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$157,343Average prediction error in the local currency
Mean Absolute Error$50,437Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%44.3%
Within 10%71.7%
Within 15%85.1%
Within 20%91.2%

Prediction bias analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$12,189Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$207Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate50.3%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate49.7%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error distribution percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$3,810$9,741$22,184$44,927$90,008$140,440

Model configuration & training

Training Samples18483
Testing Samples3738
Training R²0.980
Testing R²0.830
Last Updated2026-11-11

Additional performance metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error10.0%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$156,870Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation36.1%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.1%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %18.7%90% of predictions have error less than this