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AVM model details: Aurora, Ontario, Canada

Performance metrics for AVMs in this location.

Model type

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List price estimation model

Estimates list prices in this location from historical data and market trends.

Key performance metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)7.9%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.870How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$533,470Average prediction error in the local currency
Mean Absolute Error$190,692Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%34.8%
Within 10%61.5%
Within 15%75.6%
Within 20%85.9%

Prediction bias analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$46,970Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$2,223Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate51.0%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate49.0%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error distribution percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$12,137$35,666$90,215$184,061$346,468$544,705

Model configuration & training

Training Samples3810
Testing Samples569
Training R²0.930
Testing R²0.870
Last Updated2026-11-11

Additional performance metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error11.1%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$531,398Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation39.6%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.1%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %23.0%90% of predictions have error less than this