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AVM model details: Arizona, United States

Performance metrics for AVMs in this location.

Model type

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List price estimation model

Estimates list prices in this location from historical data and market trends.

Key performance metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)7.9%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.860How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$437,665Average prediction error in the local currency
Mean Absolute Error$98,735Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%34.4%
Within 10%58.4%
Within 15%72.5%
Within 20%80.7%

Prediction bias analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$24,095Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias-$476Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate49.6%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate50.4%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error distribution percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$5,518$14,417$33,886$75,157$171,989$303,517

Model configuration & training

Training Samples306652
Testing Samples34793
Training R²0.960
Testing R²0.860
Last Updated2026-11-11

Additional performance metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error18.0%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$437,003Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation75.5%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.4%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %31.6%90% of predictions have error less than this