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AVM model details: Colorado, United States

Performance metrics for AVMs in this location.

Model type

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List price estimation model

Estimates list prices in this location from historical data and market trends.

Key performance metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)7.5%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.840How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$454,801Average prediction error in the local currency
Mean Absolute Error$110,444Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%36.2%
Within 10%60.3%
Within 15%74.5%
Within 20%82.5%

Prediction bias analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$21,367Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias-$15Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate50.0%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate50.0%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error distribution percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$6,276$16,698$39,607$87,990$197,921$349,982

Model configuration & training

Training Samples253437
Testing Samples33318
Training R²0.940
Testing R²0.840
Last Updated2026-10-12

Additional performance metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error15.1%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$454,300Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation67.4%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.3%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %29.3%90% of predictions have error less than this