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AVM Model Details: Sidney, BC

Detailed performance metrics for our automated valuation models in this location.

Sale price estimation model

This model estimates the sale price of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)7.1%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.860How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$185914Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$92419Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%37.5%
Within 10%60.6%
Within 15%79.7%
Within 20%89.2%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias+$1714Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$7343Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate56.2%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate43.8%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$7343$20802$54584$108470$198118$290946

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples1001
Testing Samples251
Training R²0.950
Testing R²0.860
Last Updated2025-07-03

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error9.8%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$185906Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation21.9%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.1%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %20.8%90% of predictions have error less than this

List price estimation model

This model estimates the list price of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)6.5%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.880How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$177683Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$84619Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%39.0%
Within 10%67.7%
Within 15%83.3%
Within 20%92.4%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$7946Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$4499Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate51.4%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate48.6%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$10092$22048$52301$101249$181380$229219

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples1001
Testing Samples251
Training R²0.980
Testing R²0.880
Last Updated2025-07-03

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error9.0%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$177505Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation20.5%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.3%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %18.0%90% of predictions have error less than this

Monthly rent estimation model

This model estimates the monthly rent of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)8.4%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.460How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$488Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$360Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%24.8%
Within 10%56.9%
Within 15%66.7%
Within 20%81.0%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$48Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias-$18Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate47.1%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate52.9%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$51$135$252$511$887$1021

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples609
Testing Samples153
Training R²0.900
Testing R²0.460
Last Updated2025-07-03

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error12.7%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$486Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation17.3%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %2.1%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %27.5%90% of predictions have error less than this