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AVM Model Details: ON

Detailed performance metrics for our automated valuation models in this location.

Sale price estimation model

This model estimates the sale price of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)9.7%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.770How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$226767Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$125210Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%28.4%
Within 10%50.9%
Within 15%65.7%
Within 20%75.4%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$24819Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$2437Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate51.1%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate48.9%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$11174$28763$67409$143013$281723$433044

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples258164
Testing Samples64541
Training R²0.850
Testing R²0.770
Last Updated2025-07-05

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error16.6%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$225405Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation28.9%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.7%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %36.7%90% of predictions have error less than this

List price estimation model

This model estimates the list price of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)9.7%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.770How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$234695Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$131112Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%29.0%
Within 10%51.1%
Within 15%66.1%
Within 20%75.7%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$24817Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$1533Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate50.7%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate49.3%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$11771$30074$70874$152006$297122$449817

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples258164
Testing Samples64541
Training R²0.870
Testing R²0.770
Last Updated2025-07-05

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error16.6%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$233380Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation28.1%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.7%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %36.9%90% of predictions have error less than this

Monthly rent estimation model

This model estimates the monthly rent of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)8.8%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.540How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$459Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$333Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%30.7%
Within 10%54.2%
Within 15%70.5%
Within 20%83.0%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$41Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$1Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate50.0%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate50.0%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$39$109$251$449$734$966

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples3655
Testing Samples914
Training R²0.670
Testing R²0.540
Last Updated2025-07-05

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error11.8%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$457Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation16.4%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.4%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %25.7%90% of predictions have error less than this