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AVM Model Details: Ottawa, ON

Detailed performance metrics for our automated valuation models in this location.

Sale price estimation model

This model estimates the sale price of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)6.5%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.840How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$170483Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$85593Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%40.7%
Within 10%65.6%
Within 15%78.3%
Within 20%86.2%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$15260Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$363Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate50.3%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate49.7%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$5994$15603$37793$88030$209324$325655

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples20578
Testing Samples5145
Training R²0.940
Testing R²0.840
Last Updated2025-07-03

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error11.0%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$169798Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation25.0%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.1%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %25.2%90% of predictions have error less than this

List price estimation model

This model estimates the list price of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)6.6%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.840How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$181072Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$91575Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%39.4%
Within 10%65.1%
Within 15%78.4%
Within 20%85.5%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$15148Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$1228Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate50.9%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate49.1%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$6373$17603$41450$93953$221902$348802

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples20578
Testing Samples5145
Training R²0.930
Testing R²0.840
Last Updated2025-07-03

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error11.1%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$180437Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation25.1%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.1%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %25.1%90% of predictions have error less than this

Monthly rent estimation model

This model estimates the monthly rent of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)7.3%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score-0.000How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$561Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$386Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%39.3%
Within 10%53.6%
Within 15%67.9%
Within 20%71.4%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$60Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias-$16Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate46.4%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate53.6%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$20$79$218$619$1040$1108

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples111
Testing Samples28
Training R²0.000
Testing R²-0.000
Last Updated2025-07-02

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error14.3%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$558Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation20.1%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %0.7%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %34.4%90% of predictions have error less than this