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AVM Model Details: Olds, AB

Detailed performance metrics for our automated valuation models in this location.

Sale price estimation model

This model estimates the sale price of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)8.6%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.830How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$71221Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$52459Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%29.4%
Within 10%55.5%
Within 15%65.5%
Within 20%79.8%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias+$7676Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$4482Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate51.3%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate48.7%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$8700$17278$36124$74622$107155$142690

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples476
Testing Samples119
Training R²0.900
Testing R²0.830
Last Updated2025-07-01

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error15.0%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$70806Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation16.3%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %2.1%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %30.1%90% of predictions have error less than this

List price estimation model

This model estimates the list price of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)8.7%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.810How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$80605Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$56789Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%30.3%
Within 10%53.8%
Within 15%67.2%
Within 20%75.6%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias+$8495Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$6078Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate56.3%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate43.7%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$6308$13719$38419$76887$134674$172608

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples476
Testing Samples119
Training R²0.870
Testing R²0.810
Last Updated2025-07-01

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error15.5%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$80156Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation17.7%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.6%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %32.2%90% of predictions have error less than this

Monthly rent estimation model

This model estimates the monthly rent of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)7.4%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.610How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$384Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$275Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%33.5%
Within 10%59.5%
Within 15%78.1%
Within 20%84.5%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias+$8Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$4Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate50.5%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate49.5%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$40$93$196$364$589$870

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples1549
Testing Samples388
Training R²0.690
Testing R²0.610
Last Updated2025-07-02

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error10.9%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$384Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation14.5%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.5%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %25.1%90% of predictions have error less than this