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AVM Model Details: Sylvan Lake, AB

Detailed performance metrics for our automated valuation models in this location.

Sale price estimation model

This model estimates the sale price of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)7.5%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.700How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$122591Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$56186Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%30.6%
Within 10%59.2%
Within 15%72.2%
Within 20%81.6%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$8614Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$5946Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate55.1%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate44.9%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$6384$14761$28925$59051$118228$168024

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples977
Testing Samples245
Training R²0.710
Testing R²0.700
Last Updated2025-07-03

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error15.0%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$122288Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation31.9%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.8%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %33.0%90% of predictions have error less than this

List price estimation model

This model estimates the list price of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)6.8%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.770How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$112786Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$49851Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%39.6%
Within 10%62.0%
Within 15%77.6%
Within 20%84.5%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias-$5522Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$2647Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate55.1%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate44.9%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$4109$11908$25576$49139$103028$176949

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples977
Testing Samples245
Training R²0.870
Testing R²0.770
Last Updated2025-07-03

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error12.6%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$112650Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation28.5%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.2%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %33.1%90% of predictions have error less than this

Monthly rent estimation model

This model estimates the monthly rent of properties in this location based on historical data and market trends.

Key Performance Metrics

Median Absolute Percentage Error (M. MAPE)7.4%Half of our predictions are within this percentage of the actual value
Testing R² Score0.610How much of the price variation our model explains
Root Mean Square Error$384Average prediction error in dollars
Mean Absolute Error$275Average absolute difference between predicted and actual

Accuracy Distribution

Percentage of predictions within various error ranges

Within 5%33.5%
Within 10%59.5%
Within 15%78.1%
Within 20%84.5%

Prediction Bias Analysis

Does the model tend to overestimate or underestimate?

Mean Bias+$8Average prediction bias (+ means overestimate)
Median Bias+$4Typical prediction bias
Over-prediction Rate50.5%Percentage of predictions that are above the actual value
Under-prediction Rate49.5%Percentage of predictions that are below actual value

Error Distribution Percentiles

The absolute error amount at different percentiles - for example, '90th percentile: $50,000' means 90% of predictions have errors less than $50,000

Percentile10th25th50th75th90th95th
Error Amount$40$93$196$364$589$870

Model Configuration & Training

Training Samples1549
Testing Samples388
Training R²0.690
Testing R²0.610
Last Updated2025-07-02

Additional Performance Metrics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error10.9%Average percentage error across all predictions
Forecast Standard Deviation$384Spread of prediction errors
Coefficient of Variation14.5%Relative variability of predictions
10th Percentile Error %1.5%10% of predictions have error less than this
90th Percentile Error %25.1%90% of predictions have error less than this